Biden v Bernie: The Endgame
I wrote three articles last week focusing on the buildup to Super Tuesday, where 14 states including California and Texas had their primaries to decide the next Democratic nominee for President. I was never able to upload those articles because as fast as I wrote them, the news cycle stayed ahead of me. Tom Steyer, Pete Buttigieg, and Amy Klobuchar all dropped out before last Tuesday, and Mike Bloomberg dropped out after a poor performance compared to the two frontrunners. Now we have a match not unlike the 2016 primary, and Donald Trump couldn't be happier.
If I were to try and imagine a situation that would be most advantageous for the President going into this election, I would describe what is currently happening. Right now the moderate establishment of the Democratic Party has rallied around Joe Biden, which gives him the advantage when it comes to superdelegates and funding. The rest of the primary is sure to get dirty, as Biden and Sanders will hit each other with everything they have. That said, there is a 61% chance of reaching the convention without a nominee, and this is where superdelegates would then essentially decide who that nominee is, bringing their role in Democratic primaries to the fore once again. These unelected delegates are appointed by the Democratic Party and can vote how they like, meaning they will vote how the Democratic Party wants them to vote, making it all but certain that Biden will be the nominee.
Even though Bernie has promised to support the Democratic nominee in the general, no matter who that is, his followers have made no such promises. The ride-or-die BernieBros only call themselves Democrats because Bernie calls himself one. For your hard-left Sanders supporter, Joe Biden is worse than Trump. That might be strange to hear, but Trump and Bernie have far more in common with each other than with Biden. The former VP spent his entire career in politics as a moderate, establishment, politics-as-usual force, and that is something the BernieBros can't abide by. Many Sanders supporters will stay home or vote for Trump because the Democratic candidate is most likely to be chosen through an undemocratic method, screwing Bernie over again.
This race is so reminiscent of 2016 it's hard not to laugh. After Bernie and Biden throw everything and the kitchen sink at each other, and Biden becomes the nominee, Trump will walk away with this election in November. I hope I'm wrong, but if the Democratic Party picks a candidate for their supporters and alienates the progressive movement in the process, it's hard to see how Trump won't benefit.