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Bernie's Momentum

Bernie Sanders is, without a doubt, the frontrunner and the odds-on favourite for the Democratic nomination for President in 2020; you could hear that much by listening to Sanders' victory speech following the results of Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, marking his second popular vote victory in a row. The Senator from Vermont is currently benefiting from a number of different political realities that will make defeating him nearly impossible without several moderates dropping out.

Amy Klobuchar's surge in New Hampshire got her third place in the caucuses with 19.8% of the vote and six delegates. The moderate vote is split between three candidates, while the ‘Bernie Bros’ will almost certainly stick with their candidate through the primary season. So, if none of the moderates drop out, Bernie has a clear path to the nomination with the progressive movement of the Democratic Party behind him.

This cycle's Democratic voter is different from 2016, where the choice was between the establishment and a progressive revolutionary. This time it is different, Democrats' chief concern is beating Trump in November, causing traditional beliefs about electability to be thrown out the window. A Mayor Pete voter is probably more likely to switch their vote to Sanders or Warren over Biden, and a Klobuchar supporter might pick Warren over her fellow moderates, Biden and Buttigieg. Even if a few moderates drop out, Bernie's promise to create a multi-racial, multi-generational political wave is likely to be appealing to those who currently support more moderate candidates.

A movement is more important than a platform when you are on a debate stage with Donald Trump and being called a socialist with 'small hands'. The candidate with the most momentum coming out of Super Tuesday (the Democratic primaries on March 3rd which includes California, the state with the most delegates) will likely become the nominee, and right now, Bernie is the strong favourite.

The numbers say it all – Bernie Sanders is the current favourite to take the Democratic nomination, and the next most likely outcome is an open convention (which would happen if no candidate has a majority of delegates after the primaries end). There is not a Democratic staffer or voter out there who would prefer an open convention to Bernie Sanders, which means he is probably going to win. Anything can happen, but I am already looking forward to seeing an octogenarian socialist debate with Trump this fall.

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